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Discussion: 2008 election day predictions

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SE-779
SE-779		 2008 election day predictions
Sep 12 2008, 8:35 PM EDT
How do you think the races that you are interested in will go on election day. 20  out of 24 found this valuable. Do you?    
SE-779
SE-779		 RE: 2008 election day predictions
Sep 12 2008, 8:38 PM EDT
Here is how I think it will go:

2008 results:

2009 Senate Makeup:

Democrat's: 51
Republican's: 49

Projected Pickups:

Democrat's: 1(Virginia) 66%-33% Warner
Republican's: 1(Louisiana)

Close Races:

Alaska: 50%-49% Stevens
Colorado: 49%-48% Schaffer
Georgia: 54%-44% Chambliss
Louisiana: 50%-47% Kennedy
Minnesota: 53%-40%-7% Coleman
Mississippi: 52%-47% Wicker
North Carolina: 51%-47% Dole
New Hampshire: 50%-48% Sununu
New Mexico: 51%-49% Pearce
Oregon: 51%-46% Smith

2009 Gubernatorial Makeup:

Democrat's: 26
Republican's: 24

Projected Pickups:

Republican's: 2(North Carolina, Washington)

Close Races:

Missouri: 51%-49% Hulshof
North Carolina: 52%-48% McCrory
Vermont: 50%-43% Douglas
Washington: 51%-49% Rossi

2009 House Makeup:

Projected Pickups:

Democrat's: 14(AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-04, CT-04, FL-21, IL-11, MI-07, NV-03, NJ-03, NY-13, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, VA-11)
Republican's: 14(AL-05, AZ-05, Fl-16, GA-08, KS-02, LA-06, MS-01, NH-01, NY-20, OR-05, PA-04, PA-10, TX-22, WI-08) 4  out of 7 found this valuable. Do you?    
benawu
benawu		 RE: 2008 election day predictions
Sep 13 2008, 4:33 AM EDT
No way. Your predictions are far too GOP friendly allthough I guess it depends on who you think will win the Presidential race.

My take is:
Gov - MO to Dem status quo elsewhere.

Senate - Dem pickups - VA, CO, NH, NM, MN
House - Dem pickups - AK-AL, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-13, FL-21, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, KY-02, LA-04, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-09, NV-03, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11, WA-08, WV-02.
Rep pickup - FL-16, KS-02, LA-06, TX-22

Much more likely albeit more optimistic about Democratic chances than you are. There are any number of other races that could/might flip. 3  out of 5 found this valuable. Do you?    
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