Incumbent	Kirsten Gillibrand
Party	Democratic
Seeking Re-election?	Probably
Candidate Website	House Website Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia profile on Kristen Gillibrand

2004 Presidential Vote	Bush - 52.82% Kerry - 45.06%
2006 Election Results	Gillibrand - 53.10% Sweeney - 46.90%
Voter Registration	As at 11/1/07 Dem - 115,563 (25.36%) Rep - 193,328 (42.42%) Other - 146,841 (32.22%)
District Blog(s)	20trueblue

Challenger	Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell - former state Chair of the NY GOP
Party	Republican
Source of Information	Announcement of "statement of candidacy",April 19, 2007
Candidate Website	Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia profile on Sandy Treadwell

Challenger	Richard Wager, technology consultant to NYC Mayor Bloomberg
Party	Republican
Source of Information	News report of FEC filing, April 2, 2007
Candidate Website	Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia Page on Richard Wager

Challenger	John Wallace - retired State Trooper
Party	Republican; Constitution
Source of Information	D. C. Political Report
Candidate Website	Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia profile on John Wallace

Challenger	Michael Rocque
Party	Republican
Source of Information	Capitol Confidential, 7/12/07
Candidate Website	Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia profile on Michael Rocque

Potential Challenger	John Sweeney
Party	Republican
Source of Information	2006 Candidate mulling 2008 bid
Candidate Website	Campaign Website
Other Resources	Congresspedia profile on John Sweeney

Potential Challenger	Elizabeth "Betty" Little - State Senator
Party	Republican
Source of Information	Kos Comment / Rumour
Candidate Website

Potential Challenger	John J. Faso - former Assembly minority leader
Party	Republican
Source of Information	Kos Comment / Rumour & Human Events Online
Candidate Website

Potential Candidate	Roy McDonald - State Assemblyman
Party	Republican
Source of Information	D.C. Political Report, other news sources
Candidate Website

Potential Candidate	Jim Murphy - Saratoga County District Attorney
Party	Republican
Source of Information	D.C. Political Report
Candidate Website	Saratoga Co. DA website

Potential Candidate	Morris Guller - Anti-war activist; 2004 Centrist Party candidate
Party	Democratic (seeking to challenge Gillibrand in the 2008 primary)
Source of Information	The Hill, Capitol Confidential
Candidate Website

Background Information

District Map

2006 CAMPAIGN OVERVIEW:

In 2006, in this sprawling rural district, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand (a lawyer with David Boies' firm, who was initially painted as a transplant from New York City) defeated incumbent Republican John Sweeney (the former executive director of the State Republican Party and protegé of former State chairman Bill Powers). The election was noted for its particularly nasty and brutal tone.

Gillibrand's upset election was a perfect storm, where all necessary factors came together: Gillibrand's fundraising abilities combined with George Bush's approval rating reaching all-time lows, continued bad news from Iraq, a raft of national Republican scandals, and a last-minute scandal of whopping proportions for her opponent. In the last week of the campaign, Sweeney mishandled the leak of a State Police report of a possible domestic violence incident at his home, keeping the story aflame in the press right up to election day.

While Sweeney countered with high-profile endorsements from Rudy Giuliani, Laura Bush, and John McCain, Gillibrand was able to counter with multiple appearances by Bill and Hillary Clinton, among other Democratic stars. Moreover, Statewide Democratic races were all a cakewalk (with Eliot Spitzer, Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, and even the bloodied comptroller candidate, Alan Hevesi, winning by laughably wide margins), thus contributing to Republican voter demoralization.

The combination of these factors allowed Gillibrand to prevail, 53%-47%, despite the major initial disadvantages she faced. These included a district that had been gerrymandered for Sweeney's predecessor, Gerry Solomon (a/k/a "G.E.'s Congressman"), with almost 2-to-1 Republican-to-Democratic enrollment, and an incumbent with lots of money in the bank and plenty of earmarks and other grants to hand out.

2008 OUTLOOK:

Looking to 2008, Gillibrand may have to fight as hard or even harder to hold onto this seat. It is unknown if Sweeney will run again; he may calculate that if the impact of the State Police scandal will invariably fade somewhat, and Gillibrand will not be able to run against George Bush again. If by 2008, this heavily-Republican district is again motivated to vote for one of their own at the top of the ticket, Sweeny might figure to recapture the benefits of Solomon's gerrymandering.

Given Sweeney's diminished standing, however, Gillibrand might prefer to run for re-election against him than against other Republicans who have already been floated as possible challengers.

Those Republicans most often mentioned are moderate Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell, the former Secretary of State under George Pataki, and former Assembly Minority Leader John Faso—whose quixotic run for governor was crushed Statewide by Spitzer, but who would likely have beaten Hevesi if he had chosen instead to run again for comptroller. Faso would also be a threat due to his residence and popularity in Kinderhook, the largest town in Columbia County (where Gillibrand racked up a large victory margin in '06). Another potential opponent mentioned is Elizabeth "Betty" Little of Queensbury, a Republican who represents much of the northern stretches of the district in the New York State Senate. In addition, Gillibrand may also face a Democratic primary challenge from anti-war activist Morris Guller, who opposes Gillibrand's position supporting continuing Iraq War funding. While Guller won't likely pose a direct threat to Gillibrand receiving the nomination, his candidacy could prove to be a significant distraction in what is likely to be a competitve race.

Gillibrand, on the other hand, can expect the district to continue trending in a more balanced direction, as Democrats from southern parts of the State continue to filter northward into Dutchess, Columbia, Greene, and other parts of the district. In fact, Democratic and Republican enrollment is now nearly at parity in many of the southern portions of the district, and if current trends continue, registered Democrats will outnumber registered Republicans in Dutchess and Columbia Counties, two of the four largest counties in the district, within five years. In addition, turnover in bedroom communities surrounding Albany (not part of the district) as Spitzer's people move in and Pataki's move out may also provide her with some buffer against Republican retrenchment. She can also expect to benefit from the usual perks of incumbency (name recognition, fundraising, organization, experience, earmarks, et al.).

LINKS:

Additional background on the 2006 race, and updates on 2008 developments, can be found by searching the Albany Times-Union's "Capitol Confidential" blog.