GOP Rep. Mike Castle had a stroke before the 2006 election, but appears to be fine. As long as he runs, this seat is his, but will he be healthy enough in 2008? And will he run for Senate? If Mike Castle isn't running, expect a very competitive open seat that leans democratic. If Castle runs, Delaware's culture of incumbency and split-ticket bipartisanship will strongly favor this popular moderate. And don't expect any help from Democratic Senators Biden and Carper, either - they will give nothing more than lip service to Castle's challengers so long as their good friend and bipartisan partner Mike Castle is around. '06 challenger Dennis Spivack, has said, "This is a fight that's not finished."

Some speculate that Joe Biden's 2008 presidential run will lead to a vacancy in the Senate, but his chances to win the nomination seem poor at this time - expect him to run for re-election in 2008, and thus expect Castle, if healthy, to hold on to his seat in the House. Given Castle's moderate record, and the growing conservatism of the GOP, we might have a better shot at getting this seat by offering Castle a committee chairmanship if the Replicans elect an ultraconservative Minority Leader like the odious Joe Barton (R-TX).