If he runs, he is the favorite, but will he be healthy enough in 2008? And will he run for Senate? If Mike Castle isn't running, expect a very competitive open seat that leans democratic. If Castle runs, Delaware's culture of incumbency and split-ticket bipartisanship will strongly favor this popular moderate. And don't expect any help from Democratic Senators Biden and Carper, either - they will give nothing more than lip service to Castle's challengers so long as their good friend and bipartisan partner Mike Castle is around. '06 challenger Dennis Spivack, has said, "This is a fight that's not finished."

Some speculate that Joe Biden's 2008 presidential run will lead to a vacancy in the Senate, but his chances to win the nomination seem poor at this time - expect him to run for re-election in 2008, and thus expect Castle, if healthy, to hold on to his seat in the House. Given Castle's moderate record, and the growing conservatism of the GOP, we might have a better shot at getting this seat by offering Castle a committee chairmanship if the Replicans elect an ultraconservative Minority Leader like the odious Joe Barton (R-TX).

FEB 07 UPDATE: In an attempt to "read the tea leaves" with regard to Castle's view of running again, a local political "journalist" and well know Castle booster wrote that Castle has taken a position in the NRCC executive committee. The blurb stated that this evidence that Castle has recovered from his stroke enough to help other Republican get elected should "deflate" Democrats.

The PR stunt blew up in Castle's face however when it turned out that infact it was not the working executive committee that Castle was assigned - but a long list of "also included" Republicans who have no real role on the committee.

On March 23rd, after voting against much needed support and additional training for the troops in Iraq (HR 1591), and for the continuation of Bush’s mismanagement of the occupation, Congressman Castle signed on to a letter that explained his vote:

President Bush has issued a veto threat as a result of the inclusion of non-emergency spending and policy proposals, and a large number of Members from both sides of the aisle — and in the Senate — have expressed concern over these provisions. “There is little likelihood that this legislation, in its current form, will ever become law,”

Castle attempted to rationalize away his betrayal of our troops in the field based on the fuzzy logic that “President Bush would veto it anyway.”As Stoller MYDD said, the Iraq Accountability Act was the single most important vote since the original authorization to use force, and it was a vote to end the war. Castle stood with Bush and is STILL here.</a>standing with Bush
According to MYDD, he passed on joining an ad hoc group of Republicans who are pushing to end the war in Iraq:

A diverse collection of House Republicans has formed an ad hoc group to negotiate with the White House on a compromise Iraq spending bill, Politico’s Ryan Grim reports. The group plans to hold talks with National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, who has been working behind the scenes to cement opposition among Republicans to the spending bill that would require U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq at some point.The group includes five Republicans, diverse in geography and ideology: Reps. Pete Hoekstra of Michigan, Charles Boustany of Louisiana, Jeff Fortenberry of Nebraska, Mac Thornberry of Texas and Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland. Of the five, only Gilchrest broke with his party to support a timeline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.Now, Gilchrest says the group will encourage the White House to compromise on negotiations with Syria and Iran and on setting a date for withdrawal from Iraq.

Castle clearly has no business representing Delaware in Congress?